ADB keeps Pakistan’s FY27 growth forecast at 3.7%
Asian Development Bank sees inflation rising to 8.3% as higher energy, logistics and agricultural costs pressure prices
The Asian Development Bank has maintained its forecast for Pakistan’s economic growth at 3.7% for fiscal year 2026-27, while projecting inflation at 8.3% as rising costs continue to put pressure on the economy.
The growth projection is unchanged from the bank’s previous outlook and follows an estimated 3.7% expansion in FY26. The ADB expects economic activity to continue improving, although growth remains exposed to domestic and external risks.
Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to remain elevated during FY27, with the ADB pointing to higher energy, transport and agricultural input costs as key sources of pressure. Rising global commodity prices could further increase the cost of imports and feed into domestic prices.
The outlook also faces risks from geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. A prolonged escalation could push energy prices higher, increase Pakistan’s import bill and add pressure to inflation.
The ADB also noted that disruptions in the region could affect labor markets in Gulf countries, creating potential risks for remittance flows, which remain an important source of foreign exchange for Pakistan.
The bank’s projections come as Pakistan continues efforts to stabilize its economy, strengthen external finances and sustain growth while keeping inflationary pressures under control.
