LNG shortage pushes Pakistan toward fuel oil as winter supply risks grow

Pakistan’s fuel oil consumption in the power sector jumped sevenfold year-on-year in September as disruptions to LNG supplies forced electricity generators to rely more heavily on alternative fuels, raising concerns over gas and power availability during the coming winter.

According to data from the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC), fuel oil consumption reached around 93,000 tonnes in September, up sharply from the same month last year. However, consumption was 5% lower than in August.

The shift comes as disruptions to LNG shipments linked to security risks around the Strait of Hormuz have tightened gas availability. Pakistan’s power sector is expected to require up to 400 million cubic feet of gas per day during winter, while LNG supplies remain under pressure.

QatarEnergy has also extended force majeure on LNG supplies to Pakistan until November 6, raising concerns that securing enough cargoes for December and January could become increasingly difficult if disruptions persist.

The LNG shortfall is already affecting the power sector. Pakistan has increased reliance on fuel oil-fired generation as RLNG supplies have been disrupted, while authorities have warned that transportation difficulties and regional tensions could constrain electricity generation.

The broader petroleum market also saw stronger activity in September. HSD consumption rose 25% month-on-month to 548,147 tonnes, although it remained 11% below last year. Industry sources attributed the monthly increase to seasonal demand, with consumption expected to rise further from October through December during the Rabi season.

Motor Spirit consumption, meanwhile, fell 2.5% month-on-month to 666,044 tonnes and was down 5% year-on-year.

Overall petroleum product sales increased 7% month-on-month to around 1.3 million tonnes in September, but remained 2% below the same month last year.

The energy situation could become more challenging in the coming months if LNG disruptions continue, with Pakistan potentially facing gas shortages and pressure on power supplies during the winter, when household and power-sector demand for gas typically rises.